Wednesday 5 August 2009

Premier League Preview 2009/10

Premier League Preview 2009/10.

Manchester United.
Surely, Manchester United have to be the favourites to win the league again this year. Obviously, weakened by the loss of Ronaldo, but the signings of Owen and Valencia are sound. There is also a fair chance that one (or more) of the innumerable emerging youth talents at the club will truly blossom this year. Anderson, Welbeck, Macheda, Tosic, Obertan, Drinkwater, Diouf (maybe even Brandy or Nani), there are so many to choose from.
The defence will also be strong, as surely they cannot be as cursed with injuries as they were last year. You do get the nagging feeling that United could perhaps yet do with signing one or two more players to bolster certain areas. However, there can only be one conclusion when the talents of Ferdinand, Vidic, Rooney, Carrick, Giggs, etc are around, United must be favourites to lift the Premier League trophy at the end of the season.

Chelsea.
Chelsea will be intriguing this season. There is a nagging suspicion of Ancelotti's merits. Admittedly, he has won the Champions League twice this decade with AC Milan; however Milan haven't won Serie A since 2004, and haven't really looked like truly challenging for many a year. There has been a suspicion that he has retained his post at AC Milan for so long, as he is a 'yes man' to Berlusconi.
Ancelotti has not made any changes to the Chelsea squad (Zhirkov, Sturridge, Turnbull were already lined up before his arrival). The Chelsea team will not be significantly changed from last season, in all likelihood. For one thing, their squad does not allow much flexibility in formation or personnel (other than in their notoriously over-stocked central midfield).
We can basically expect more of the same from Chelsea. They will be solid. Drogba, Anelka, Lampard will score aplenty between them. They will challenge for the title, but they will more than likely end up 2nd or 3rd, as United just have more depth, skill, pace and flexibility, so will surely prevail again.

Liverpool.
Liverpool were strong last season, but were overly-reliant on Gerrard and Torres. Two players cannot win the title on their own. Benitez's transfer moves do not seem to have really eased that situation. Liverpool will not have any enhanced striking support; they will still only have the workhorse Kuyt, the inexperienced Ngog, Benitez's untrusted Babel, and the odd cameo from Benayoun. Voronin is still surely persona-non-grata at Anfield too. Gerrard and Torres will score plenty of goals, but not enough to win the title single-handedly. The potential arrival of Aquilani (which looks to be going through today) may help in terms of creativity, but for a player who plays so far up the field, 9 goals in 102 Roma games is a poor return.
Liverpool's defence will still be very solid. They have not conceded 30 goals in a season since 2004-05 (which was Benitez's first season). The addition of Glen Johnson will further enhance this solidity.
The loss of Alonso will be the loss of a fine midfielder who is highly-skilled in providing a link between that solid defence and the Torres-Gerrard duo. This will badly harm Liverpool. The rumours that won't go away about Mascherano's desire to move to Barcelona are equally alarming.
All one can really see for Liverpool is another stunted title challenge and a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

Arsenal.
Where does one start with Arsenal?! It's staggering to think that they have sold their number one forward and their number one defender, and have only signed a 6'0'' centre back from Holland. It does not look good.
Arsenal were distinctly weak last year, and look like they will be markedly even more weak this year! Wenger has got himself into a right old muddle. The only thing that could save them would be to sign a whole bunch of top draw tough players. The tabloid-rumoured De Rossi, Hangeland, Matudi, Chamakh would all be very smart buys, but they would probably need all of those and a fair few more if they were to mount any kind of substantive title challenge. And we all know that Wenger considers spending money to be immoral, so he'll almost certainly buy no more than about one mediocre player and that'll be it, and Arsenal will struggle to cling on to 4th. You could potentially see all of Villa, Manchester City, Spurs and Everton overtake them this season, that's how weak they look this season.
It must be added though that we will certainly see some more fine young midfield and forward talents emerge at Arsenal this season; but none of them will be strong enough or experienced enough to save what remains of this Arsenal team (they just won't have enough solid experienced players around them). Ramsey, Vela, Wilshere, Lansbury will all glitter this year, but it will be no where near enough, not even close.

Manchester City.
The Arabs have thrown money around to impressive effect. No, silly! Not the 10th place they limped to last season, I refer to the amount of glittering stars they have signed this summer. I think we all know that City's squad is extremely top-heavy. Despite having offloaded Caicedo, Bojinov, Jo, Sturridge, Evans, Vassell (it's always worth revisiting with awe his staggering hero's welcome to Turkey: http://tr.im/sfAf ); City still need to shoe-horn in the petulant talents of Tevez, Adebayor, Ireland, SWP, Robinho, Santa Cruz, Elano, Petrov, Benjani, Bellamy and surely only one defensive midfielder of Barry, Kompany or De Jong. To be blunt, it ain't gonna work.
City have too many players with a very high opinion of themselves, and a manager who is not exactly renowned for handling petulant talents (see Hughes' various problems with the Brazilians last season).
When you add into this the fact that though Toure may be a big loss to Arsenal, he is not a world-class defender at all. He is alright. He is not going to save City's defence. Last season they conceded 50 goals, the addition of Toure will not really do anything to stem that flow. Expect City to rip a few teams apart on their day, but they are certainly not ready for a title challenge yet. 4th may be within their grasp, but they are not at the Top 3's level yet, and they are not markedly ahead of the likes of Everton and Villa yet.

Aston Villa.
For a club with a benevolent, intelligent and super-rich owner (Randy Lerner), Villa's summer transfer dealings have not been very impressive or reassuring for their fans. They have lost Laursen, Knight and Barry; and have brought in Delph and Downing for their midfield. Villa are still in desperate need of more (not injury prone) players in defence and at centre forward. Gabby Agbonlahor cannot play every game and their only experienced defenders are now Shorey, Young, Davies, Cuellar, Bouma and that really is it! Villa are a very likeable team with a huge amount of good will from other teams' supporters. But all that good will and Martin O'Neill's likeability will not get you very far if you spend half your season with no fit forwards or defenders again.
When all their players are fit they will do very well with a solid defence and keeper, and awesome attack in Downing, Aggy, Carew, Young; but it will not be enough to get them anywhere near the Top 3 (which should surely be their ambition). They will still have enough good days to challenge the imperfect likes of Arsenal, City, Everton for 4th place. They desperately need more defenders.

Everton.
Everton have basically bought nobody this summer. They have also basically sold nobody (as things stand, Lescott and Pienaar are linked to other clubs, but have not moved). If this all stays the same, then this is no drastically bad thing for Everton. Last season, Everton were an extremely well-organised and well-bonded group of players who would battle tooth and nail right to the end of any game (even into the tictac adverts). They will also be bolstered by the continued emergence and development of youthful players like Gosling, Anichebe, Rodwell, and Vaughan. Plus, Fellaini will have had a year to acclimatise to the Premier League and Arteta will be back from injury.
Provided, they never pick Senderos and they keep hold of all their players, then Everton should again mount a strong challenge for a Champions' League place. If Moyes could rattle through a few of his trademark late transfer deals and sign one or two more options within the squad, then they will be a very strong proposition.

Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs and Reknapp have, as ever, splashed the cash this summer. Crouch brought in by Redknapp for about the 4th time (plus, Crouch started at Spurs, a truly nomadic duo) and the two Sheffield United fulbacks (Naughton and Walker) for a total cost of around £20m. All 3 are very good players. It must be said though that none of them will plug the glaring gaps in Spurs' squad. Spurs are still always desperately short of fit centre-backs. The usual bout of injuries may mean they have to start the season with Tom Huddlestone at centre-back, a cultured midfielder who is renowned for his wimpish inability to tackle and his lack of pace.
Spurs' form under Redknapp was generally very impressive last season. They have 4 very good centre forwards (assuming Bent finally gets his wish and leaves), plenty of good midfielders and fullbacks, they just need some centrebacks. I expect them to push for something like a 6th place and probably a Europa League spot (which Redknapp will promptly rubbish as a waste of his time, even though he is very unlikely to get into the Champions' League proper and so should really be grateful for such opportunities).

Fulham.
Fulham are an intriguing case. Roy Hodgson (he of the 1960s English accent) moulded them into a very well-drilled defensively super-sound team last season. It's hard to tell whether that was a flash in the pan last season. If they keep hold of Hangeland, then you can certainly see them retaining their defensive solidity. Goals may be a slight issue, as they were at times last season. No Fulham player scored more than 7 goals last season. You can expect the likes of Johnson, Zamora (if he stays), Nevland, Murphy, Dempsey to pick up bits and pieces throughout the season; but if Hodgson could land a 20 goal per season striker to bang them in (maybe Ross McCormack or Jermane Beckford), then they could maybe challenge for something like 7th or 8th again.

Wigan Athletic.
Will be interesting to see how Wigan go this season. The fine work that Steve Bruce did on player recruitment and organisation cannot be underestimated. Roberto Martinez produced a quality team at Swansea which played beautiful cultured football and scored a lot of goals. Whether Martinez can transfer those skills to the Premier League, only time will tell. The signing of Jordi Gomez is an excellent (if slightly predictable) replacement for Valencia; McCarthy and Thomas may also blossom into very good players too over time. Jason Scotland is also a player with an eye for goal who could do well.
One would expect that Martinez will probably leave Bruce's well-drilled defence as it is. He may try to evolve Wigan's attacking make-up, make it more free-flowing. I suspect it will all work very well. I expect them to comfortably finish in mid-table, well clear of the drop zone.

Bolton Wanderers.
One thing we can all assume on Bolton this season is that Gary Megson will remain unpopular with the fans throughout, despite his perfectly respectable achievements with the team. The fans' hatred of Megson is odd and daft.
Bolton have sold nobody and have signed a quartet with solid Premier League experience: Paul Robinson (the West Brom defender), Zat Knight, Sean Davis (from Portsmouth) and Sam Ricketts (Hull fullback). Impressive and canny squad-strengthening.
Bolton should expect to finish the season fairly comfortably in mid-table. They have a supreme goalkeeper, a solid defence and midfield, and Kevin Davies up-front. Bolton could do with a little more flair and guile in attack, but Elmander may well be able to provide this in his second season (contrary to last season's appearances, he is a very good centre forward). Another option at centre forward may not go amiss though.

Stoke City.
Stoke are another team who one can expect to finish fairly comfortably in mid-table. I had hoped that Stoke may have invested in a fair few players this summer; if they had, then I would have ventured that they may have pressed for a Europa League spot. As it is, having only signed the skillful Dean Whitehead, I think mid-table will be their level again this season.
They have a well-organised defence of dependable individuals, with the ever dependable Sorenson behind them. They have Delap's long throws and the craft of Whitehead, Etherington, Lawrence. And they have Beattie and Fuller to bang the goals in. Tony Pullis has compiled a very talented and well-balanced squad, who shouldn't be troubled by any relegation worries.
And they have comfortably the best atmosphere in the league, which makes a substantial difference.

West Ham United.
West Ham have always been and always will be an unpredictable bunch.
A few months ago it looked as if the club would struggle to stay afloat, their true financial picture is still somewhat murky and unclear. Straumur (who own 70% of West Ham) are in deep financial trouble, which doesn't look like being cured any time soon ( http://tr.im/vzSL ).
Their transfer dealings this summer are a bewildering mess of ins, outs, loans, frees, terminations, of players that nobody can ever entirely remember who they play for; they trade in nomads.
At their core, West Ham do still have a very good goalkeeper in Rob Green; Upson in defence, and reasonable colleagues around him; a sprinkling of good midfielders (Parker, Dyer); and some decent forwards (Cole, Ashton). There is no way West Ham will challenge for Europe. With the management of Clarke and Zola, they should probably be safe; but the fact that almost all of those players I mentioned are injury-prone in the extreme could potentially endanger their Premier League status. They will though be aided by the continued products of their youth academy (Tomkins, Stanislas, Collison, et al).

Blackburn Rovers.
As ever with 'Big Sam' there has been a huge turnover of players at Blackburn this summer. It has perhaps occurred slightly under the radar, because players being shed by Blackburn are not going to be top of the shopping lists of many Premier League clubs, and players signed by Allardyce on a limited budget are not going to be on many people's radars.
Blackburn have signed 7 foreign players (Givet, Kalinic, Di Santo, Van Heerden, Nikos, N'Zonzi, Jacobsen) that not many people will be sure if they will be any good; and they have lost Santa Cruz, Tugay, Mokoena, Ooijer, Derbyshire. On the face of it, Allardyce's dealings do not look that fantastic. They were a poor team last season, who (on the face of it) look like they may be worse this season. I think they could well be in serious relegation trouble again this season.
With Robinson, Nelsen, Samba they should be reasonably solid defensively; but none of their midfield or attack looks that impressive. Trouble could be coming their way.

Birmingham City.
The newly-promoted Birmingham will (to some extent) be something of an unknown quantity; nobody ever knows for definite how well a promoted team will adjust.
Birmingham looked to have signed a good set of players this summer (particularly Benitez, Johnson, Dann, Ferguson and Hart). There will though be a large amount of players to integrate into the team. This is what could pose their greatest problem. On paper, they could well be good enough to stay up. However, if McLeish has problems gelling the team, then they could spend their season in a relegation dogfight.
They will hope that the likes of Larsson, O'Connor, Jerome, McFadden Phillips can catch light this coming season (they do have a fair bevvy of attacking talent to choose from).

Sunderland.
A large amount of players have been trimmed from Sunderland's bloated squad this summer. One gets the impression that Steve Bruce is far from finished with his purchases though. So far, they have only signed Fraizer Campbell and Lorik Cana. It looks like they will complete the Darren Bent signing this week too.
Steve Bruce is a very fine manager who is very good at crafting a team. Your only worry as a Sunderland supporter would be that Bruce generally does most of that crafting with acuqisitions, and as aforementioned, it dosn't look like Bruce has yet been able to get the players he wants.
Sunderland do though have a good keeper and a good defence (assuming Bruce will pick the same back four for a run of games in a row, unlike his incompetent predecssor Sbragia). Bruce also has some reasonable attacking talents at his disposal (Jones, Richardson, Campbell, Reid, Malbranque, Edwards).
Sunderland will probably survive, but it is far from definite. Bruce has a lot of work to do to keep this ragtag bunch up.

Burnley.
Burnley will make for an interesting watch this season. Many Premier League viewers (especially the more blinkered) will not be aware of the majority of their players. However, Burnley are no mugs; they have a team with an abundance of skilled attacking players.
The attacking talents of Eagles, Fletcher, Blake, Paterson will surely impress in the Premier League. The defence does not look so strong. Defensively, they are a collection of past Premier League failures and inexperienced youngsters. It is surprising that Coyle has not strengthened this area more than just signing Eckersley and Mears.
I fear for Burnley, they look like they could take a few pastings and go down quite swiftly; but don't surprised if their attacking prowess catches a few teams off-guard along the way.

Hull City.
Hull City's debut Premier League season was truly bizarre. They started in a flurry of solid defence, sublime attacking and fine management. They finished in a mess of arrogant management, chaotic defending and impotent attacking.
Phil Brown has not signed anybody of note. They are basically retaining the same team as last season (as things stand). This is probably not a good thing. They do have some good players (Turner, Bullard, Geovanni), of that there's no doubt; but it is quite apparent that they do not have enough. Hull have to be amongst the favourites for the drop this season. Especially as you get the impression that the Hull board have some kind of blind faith in the perma-tanned Brown and his ludicrous antics.

Wolverhampton Wanderers.
As with any newly-promoted team, pretty much anything could happen with Wolves this season.
Last season, they were (for most of the season) utterly deadly in attack. Ebanks-Blake, Iwelumo, Kightly all have the potential to do spectacularly well in the Premier League. They will be well-supported in attack and midfield by Milijas (a classy Serbain signing), Jones, Doyle (who may prosper), Surman, Vokes and many others. Defence is where Wolves' worries will lie. Stearman and Berra are good defenders, but they are inexperienced and seriously lack support. The weaknesses in their defence coupled with the perennial Premier League incompetence of Mick McCarthy mean they will almost certainly be embroiled in a relegation battle this season.
They also have four good keepers by the way, for what it's worth (but that's probably just indicative of McCarthy's lop-sided squad).

Portsmouth.
Portsmouth, well where do you start? I was intending to write Portsmouth last, to keep it as up-to-date as possible, as a bad news story seems to come out of Portsmouth FC about every 4 minutes this season. They are the new Newcastle. The two players fighting was today's latest.
This summer they have lost (are you ready?): Jerome Thomas, Jermaine Pennant, Peter Crouch, Glen Johsnson, Sean Davis, Glen Little, Noe Pamarot, Djimi Traore and Lauren. In the past year or so, they have also lost the likes of Defoe, Redknapp, Benjani, Muntari, Lassana, etc etc.
To replace this dizzying mixture of departures they have a manager from another era who has a temporary air around him (Paul Hart), and are in the desperate and frantic process of trying to grab a handful of bargain basement players, so as to be able to put a team out for the start of the season. They are signing whatever waifs and strays they can lay their hands on. Hart is struggling to find a full starting eleven and accompanying substitutes, it's that bad.
There's no two ways about it, Portsmouth are doomed.
It would not be surprising to see more departures (perhaps the likes of Kranjcar, Cranie, Distin, James). They are a club in big trouble, with an extremely messy and still unresolved ownership situation.
Piquionne may do well for them though.

Prediction:

(For what it is worth):

1. Manchester United.
2. Chelsea.
3. Liverpool.
4. Everton.
5. Manchester City.
6. Arsenal.
7. Aston Villa.
8. Wigan.
9. Spurs.
10. Fulham.
11. Bolton.
12. Stoke.
13. West Ham.
14. Sunderland
15. Birmingham
16. Wolves
17. Burnley
18. Blackburn
19. Hull
20. Portsmouth

But anything could happen, especially between places 18 and 15.